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The Slow Lantern

No. 14 · Winter

Section

Thinking Tools

Mental models explained with everyday examples and the reasons they work.

Entries

  1. 01 Thinking Tools

    Base Rates: A Short History of Starting With the Usual Case

    Before you judge the particular story in front of you, ask how often things like it turn out one way or another. Here is where that habit came from, who first made it precise, and how it can steady an ordinary guess about a new café.

    9 min Newest
  2. 02 Thinking Tools

    The Dunning-Kruger Trap Is Smaller Than You Think: A Gentler Way to Check Your Own Confidence

    Feeling surer than you should about something new is not a flaw. It is what happens when you have not yet seen how big the subject is. Here is why it happens, and three small checks that keep your confidence honest.

    9 min
  3. 03 Thinking Tools

    Second-Order Thinking: Asking "And Then What?"

    Second-order thinking is the habit of following a choice one step further than feels natural. Here is how it works, where it helps, and why it should stay out of the way when you're choosing a biscuit.

    8 min
  4. 04 Thinking Tools

    Occam's Razor, Without the Mystique: Where the Idea Came From and What It's Good For

    When two explanations fit the facts equally well, which should you try first? A short history of Occam's razor, a worked kitchen puzzle with the arithmetic shown, and an honest look at where simple stops being a good guide.

    9 min
  5. 05 Thinking Tools

    The Pre-Mortem: Imagining Your Plan Has Gone Wrong Before You Start

    A pre-mortem asks you to picture your plan having already failed, then list the reasons why. It's a small, cheerful habit that works on camping trips and birthday dinners, and it takes about five minutes.

    8 min
  6. 06 Thinking Tools

    The Map Is Not the Territory: Where the Idea Came From and What It's Good For

    A hand-drawn park map once sent a friend down a path that was no longer there. Following that small mishap back through Lewis Carroll and a 1931 mathematics talk shows why every summary leaves things out, and why that is a feature rather than a fault.

    8 min
  7. 07 Thinking Tools

    The Pareto Idea Without the Hype: Noticing What Matters Most

    A small share of causes often produces a large share of results, but "eighty-twenty" is a loose pattern, not a law. Here is how to spot it in a garage, an inbox or your week, with one small exercise to try.

    9 min